Will platinum Pandas go extinct?

The cash price of platinum hovers around the $2,000 per ounce mark partly due to an electricity shortage in South Africa, the source for 80% of the world’s newly mined metal. The steep rise may not be over, either; analysts estimate that the price of platinum could approach $3,000 at some point in 2008. What does this have to do with Pandas? From 1987-1990, the Chinese Mint struck a total of 8,300* one ounce Pandas; coins which are all scarce as numismatic items. An additional 5,450 ounces of platinum were used during the 1990’s for smaller sized coins.

As demand for platinum pushes prices ever higher, might any of these find their way into the melting pot? Unfortunately, the answer could be, yes. The high intrinsic value of these coins is likely whittling away at the population of potential collectors who can afford to buy them. As that happens, the premiums over melt that they command will shrink. This will increase the incentive for owners to cash in on their profits by selling the coins as bullion, rather than through numismatic channels.

There is no telling how long this situation can continue; the South African government predicts no solution until 2012 when another power plant is scheduled to be completed. By that time, who knows how many Pandas will have met their fate and what quantity will remain for numismatists? Almost certainly, the number will be reduced below 8,300. Collectors who hang on through the turmoil could ultimately find themselves owning coins that are rarer than the already low mintage figures suggest.

* The 1989 Panda has the largest official mintage (3,000) of the four dates. Strangely, It appears for sale only 60% as often as the 1987 and 1988’s which had just 2,000 apiece struck. Based on that ratio, the mintage of the 1989’s may be overstated by about a 1,000 coins, which would reduce the universe of 1 oz. platinum Pandas to nearer 7,000.

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Platinum Pandas of China

1 Oz, or 31.1 grams; Diameter = 32mm; 100 Yuan face value (1987-1990)
1/2 Oz, or 15.55 grams; Diameter = 27mm; 50 Yuan face value (1990)
1/4 Oz, or 7.8 grams; Diameter = 22mm; 25 Yuan face value
1/10 Oz, or 3.1 grams; Diameter = 18mm; 10 Yuan face value (100 Yuan in 2002 & 2005)
1/20 Oz, or 1.55 grams; Diameter = 14mm; 50 yuan face value (2002 & 2003):

Roll your mouse over the coins to see the obverse side with The Temple of Heaven in Beijing design

PPI (Panda Paucity Index) values: Higher is scarcer

Photos courtesy of CGC Coins

1987 100 Yuan; 1 oz. PPI Value: 90 Mintage: 2,000	1988 100 Yuan; 1 oz. PPI Value: 90 Mintage: 2,000
1989 100 Yuan; 1 oz. PPI Value: 94 Mintage: 3,000	1990 100 Yuan; 1 oz. PPI Value: 97 Mintage: 1,300
1990 50 Yuan; .5 oz. Mintage: 2,500	1990 50 Yuan; .25 oz. Mintage: 3,500
1990 10 Yuan; .10 oz. Mintage: 4,500 -	1993 10 Yuan; .10 oz. Mintage: 2,500 1993 5 Yuan; .05 oz. Mintage: 2,500
1994 10 Yuan; .10 oz. Mintage: 5,000	1995 10 Yuan; .10 oz. Mintage: 5,000 1995 5 Yuan; .05 oz. Mintage: 10,000
1996 10 Yuan; .10 oz. Mintage: 2,500 1996 5 Yuan; .05 oz. Mintage: 5,000	1997 10 Yuan; .10 oz. Mintage: 2,500 1997 5 Yuan; .05 oz. Mintage: 5,000
2002 100 Yuan; .10 oz. Mintage: 20,000	2003 50 Yuan; .05 oz. Mintage: 50,000
2004 50 Yuan; .05 oz. Mintage: 50,000	2005 100 Yuan; .10 oz. Mintage: 30,000